Maersk’s notice of 18 May 2026 is short. From 17 June a Peak Season Surcharge applies from Far East Asia to the United States and Canada, “until further notice”. The table has a single row.
The amounts: USD 1,000 per 20ft and USD 2,000 per 40ft or 45ft. The Europe version came a week later at USD 300 and USD 600 for North Europe and the Mediterranean, with a price calculation date of 10 June. Freightos wrote on 26 May that mid-May GRIs had lifted transpacific rates by more than 10% on both coasts in a week, which it read as an early start to peak season. For Europe it listed Red Sea diversions and contracted shippers front-loading ahead of July fuel increases as possible drivers. For the Pacific, the possible drivers were the coming BAF updates and Amazon’s decision to move Prime Day from July to June.
Xeneta measures the year against 28 February, its pre-Hormuz baseline, set before the Strait of Hormuz crisis. On 3 July its Far East to US West Coast average stood at USD 6,639 per FEU, 253% above that baseline. Xeneta’s Peter Sand called the double-digit rises on every major fronthaul “a clear sign peak season is already here at a global level”.
Europe peaked in July, the Pacific kept climbing
Between 1 July and 24 September, Xeneta’s average for Far East to North Europe fell 28.7% (USD 1,590 per FEU) and to the Mediterranean 37.8% (USD 2,650). Over the same weeks the US West Coast rose 18.4% and the East Coast 30.7%. On 1 October the US trades stood at USD 8,346 and USD 11,523 per FEU, against USD 3,726 into North Europe. Sand said “with a level of confidence” that the US trades had reached their post-Hormuz peak. Two weeks later the averages were almost flat, and Drewry had Shanghai to Los Angeles at USD 7,884 per 40ft.
Typhoons held the Pacific up. Freightos counted as many as ninety ships waiting more than a week for a Shanghai slot at the start of September, and Sea-Intelligence calculated, as Splash247 reported, that delays were absorbing 8.5% of the global fleet, roughly 3m TEU. Europe went the other way. Freightos names Red Sea transits, rising since June, as one factor in the fall since July, and the post-peak slide in demand as the bigger one. Xeneta put weekly capacity crossing Bab el-Mandeb in at least one direction at 448,273 TEU on 5 October, double the 27 August level.
Golden Week: record capacity on paper, blanks after the holiday
Maersk published its Golden Week voyages on 28 August, six weeks before the first example sailing, with blankings listed per voyage. Two examples: voyage 640E of service TP8 (West Coast) from Busan on 9 October and voyage 641E of TP12 (East Coast) from Ningbo the same day, with inducement calls on alternative sailings to keep port coverage. Drewry’s tracker of 2 October expected 39 blank sailings on the main East-West trades from week 41 to week 45, 5% of 710 planned, and 49% of them were on the Transpacific eastbound.
On paper the supply was larger than in 2025. Sea-Intelligence’s September study had 1.49m TEU scheduled over the four Golden Week weeks from Asia to the North America West Coast, 18% more than 2025, with planned reductions at 9.4%. On the West Coast route alone, seven services were due to run double sailings in week 40 and eleven in week 41, bunched together by port congestion. The study concluded that the record capacity came mainly from operational disruption and not from carrier strategy. Freightos made a matching point about the blanks themselves: some were likely caused by delays, while carriers were also using the cuts to adjust to lower expected volumes over the holiday and later in October.
The blanking went on after the holiday. Xeneta counted 58,200 TEU blanked from the Far East to the US West Coast in the week to 16 October. Xeneta’s Emily Stausbøll said that with US spot rates still up triple digits on February, carriers would normally be adding capacity, and that blanking “looks like the behavior of carriers who don’t believe the market will hold”. West Coast forwarder Freight Right said in The Loadstar that containers rolled before or during the holiday were filling available slots, “leaving fewer opportunities for new bookings”. Drewry’s 16 October update gives a new window: 44 blanks in weeks 43 to 47, 6% of 713 planned.
Asia-Europe: Drewry calls the FAK uncertain
Drewry’s Shanghai to Rotterdam index rose 6% to USD 3,522 per 40ft on 15 October, after 13 weeks of decline. MSC’s advisory sets Far East to North Europe at USD 4,500 per 40ft high cube from 19 October, “not beyond 31 October”. Drewry’s own index note adds that successful implementation of the FAKs “remains uncertain amid increased capacity”. One European forwarder told The Loadstar that FAK revisions for 19 October had come in that same morning, almost back to the levels of early October. The Loadstar lists Hapag-Lloyd at USD 4,200 and CMA CGM at USD 4,600 for the same date.
The Loadstar piece carries a number that matters more to a shipper than the FAK. WiseTech’s Jon Charles said only 9.9% of Asia-Europe shipments arrived on time in September, with delays of eight days or more on almost half of volume. Delivery dates promised to customers belong against that figure.
Chinese New Year falls on 6 February
Chinese New Year 2027 falls on Saturday 6 February, 16 weeks after 17 October. In 2026 it came on 17 February, which Xeneta noted was the latest since 2015, so the 2027 run-up ends 11 days earlier in the calendar.
The 2026 holiday is the most recent one with numbers I could verify. Xeneta’s 8 January update had Far East to US West Coast at USD 2,835 per FEU, up almost 60% in a month on the pre-holiday rush. By the pre-holiday analysis the same average was down 34% since the start of the year at USD 1,520, and carriers had announced blanks of 155,400 TEU on that trade in the week after the holiday.
The starting point this time is far higher, though the dates differ: USD 8,296 in the week to 16 October, a peak-season week, against USD 1,520 in the weeks before the 2026 holiday. Sea-Intelligence’s recovery rates imply seven to 10 months for congestion to return to the low levels of June 2025, and Splash247 reads that as making it increasingly likely the problem is only partly resolved before the pre-holiday cargo rush. Freightos says one could expect congestion and fuel costs to contribute to an elevated rate floor even in low-demand stretches, and “a higher baseline from which prices will climb” ahead of Lunar New Year.
The National Retail Federation’s forecast has January 2027 volume at the US ports it tracks 1.9% below a year earlier and February 1% above. Sand said on 2 October that demand is not strong and rates have peaked, and that three months on they could sit at USD 6,000 to 7,000 per FEU to the East Coast and USD 4,500 to 5,500 to the West Coast. Against the 1 October averages of USD 11,523 and USD 8,346 he called that a sizeable correction that stops short of a collapse. The window ends around New Year, so it does not cover the holiday rush itself.
Carrier paperwork adds a date. The Loadstar, citing Linerlytica in May 2026, reports that Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd amended their Gemini Cooperation agreement, which Linerlytica dates from March. Until then, talks on seasonal blank sailings for Chinese New Year and Golden Week had to start 12 weeks ahead. The amendment extends them to Christmas and the calendar new year and shortens the lead time to 6 to 8 weeks. The report does not say whether the shorter lead time also applies to Chinese New Year. If it does, talks on sailings after 6 February could start in December.
In 2026 the jump had already shown up by 8 January, so a mid-January booking deadline, which some guides give, looks late. That is an inference from one data point. A written booking cut-off from the forwarder in December is the safer ask. China Fulfillment advises confirming production by early December 2026 and booking sea freight by mid-January. CH Shipping says factories wind down about a week before the holiday and many workers take two to four weeks off. Both are logistics providers’ planning ranges, and each supplier sets its own shutdown.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on 23 September that the US-China trade truce, due to expire on 10 November, would run to 10 January 2027. Freightos wrote on 30 September that this likely postpones US port call fees on China-linked vessels, and that the USTR had not yet issued an official notice. The USTR notice in the Federal Register still ends the fee suspension at 11:59 p.m. on 9 November, so as of early October the fees were due back on 10 November unless a new notice appeared, and I found none as of 17 October.
For a quote close to any of these surcharges, check it against a dated lane number first: navo24.com/freight shows an indicative spot rate per lane for 20ft, 40ft and 40HC, updated daily and stamped with the date it last moved. The fees fall on owners and operators of China-linked or Chinese-built vessels. A shipper with cargo landing after 10 November can ask the forwarder how it will treat them if they return.
Frequently asked questions
My cargo clears the factory in the second week of January. Is that too late for Chinese New Year?
It is late. From 11 January to Saturday 6 February is 26 days, and China Fulfillment, a forwarder, tells importers to book sea freight by mid-January and to confirm production by early December. CH Shipping, another forwarder, says factories typically wind down about a week before the holiday and many close for two to four weeks. Last year the rush came earlier than that, with Xeneta reporting Far East to US West Coast spot up almost 60% in the month to 8 January 2026. Ask the factory for its own last loading date and the forwarder for a confirmed vessel and voyage in writing, because a quote alone does not hold space.
Carriers want me to sign a 2027 contract now. Should I lock in at today's rates?
Freightos wrote on 13 October that Asia-Europe prices, even after the fall since July, are still above $3,000 per FEU and about 70% higher than a year ago, and that some shippers expect rates to ease in 2027 as new ships arrive and Red Sea transits keep rising, so they hesitate to lock in annual rates. It adds that last year carriers cut capacity and pushed a series of Q4 GRIs to raise the benchmark that tenders were based on. Xeneta's Peter Sand said on 24 September that contract rates are a far cry from the red-hot spot market, but that shippers cannot dismiss the conditions as something that will go away soon. A split of volume between contract and index-linked or spot is a decision for your own numbers; the sources only show the pressure on both sides.
Can air freight rescue a shipment that misses the sailing?
Sometimes, and Europe is the easier lane. Freightos put China to North Europe air at $3.58 per kg in the week to 13 October, down 9% on a year earlier and only 4% above pre-war, while China to North America was near $6.80 per kg at the end of September and its global air benchmark was 33% higher than a year ago. Rates per kilo are charged on chargeable weight, so get a quote for the actual cartons before comparing it with an ocean price. Air only makes sense for the part of an order that cannot wait.