Read both October reports on the same trade and you get two answers to one question. WiseTech Global’s Ocean Freight Risk Outlook has 26.9% of Asia to North America shipments reaching the discharge port on or before the carrier’s promised schedule in September, as FreightWaves relayed it. Xeneta’s September scorecard, published three days later, gives container schedule reliability on Far East to North America as 20%.
WiseTech’s figure was down from 33.9% in August. Xeneta’s was unchanged. The latest weekly WiseTech reading was 26.8%, and arrivals eight days late or more were the largest single outcome in it.
Two definitions of on time
Tradlinx states the WiseTech rule as arrival at the port of discharge on or before the carrier’s promised schedule. The published text does not say whether the promise is the original ETA or a revised one, or what tolerance applies.
Xeneta counts sailings. An arrival is on time within 24 hours either side of the ETA in the carrier’s original proforma schedule, set at service launch or at its latest structural update. Xeneta’s reliability page says the benchmark is that original schedule and not updated carrier ETAs, and that arrivals come from terrestrial and satellite AIS.
A 24-hour window forgives a one-day delay, and Xeneta’s number is still the lower of the two. The seven-point gap cannot be split into definition and market from what either report publishes, and the lane names (Asia, Far East) and the units (shipments, sailings) differ as well.
Where space is short and where ships are late
Asia to Europe looks worse on punctuality. WiseTech has 9.9% on time in September against 22.9% in August, with 45.5% of volume in the latest week eight days late or more, and Xeneta has Far East to Europe at 4% with a 9.9-day average delay. WiseTech’s booking security risk for that lane nonetheless stays well below its historical average.
On Asia to North America the booking indicator is expected to rise and stay well above its historical average, with capacity tightening towards the end of the four-week window because carriers plan less. Planned transit times of 26.2 to 27.6 days sit under the 28-day baseline.
Xeneta adds blank sailings, which it treats as part of the same container schedule reliability picture (more on booking the hull that shows up). Carriers blanked 8% of planned Far East to North America capacity in September, and announced October blankings are at least 13%, still below the October 2025 share. Xeneta reads that as either carriers keeping capacity in rotation to work off the typhoon backlog, or more cancellations still to land. October planned capacity on the trade is the third highest in 22 months.
Port waits behind the delays
Xeneta ties the slide to the typhoons that hit Asia from July to early September, together with bunker costs and strong peak-season demand, and expects no firm floor in October. FreightWaves’ account of the scorecard gives the port side: Shanghai’s anchorage queue shortened from 101 to 86 vessels a day while the average wait lengthened from 1.9 to 2.7 days, and Singapore’s daily queue nearly doubled to 22 ships with the average wait up from 1.9 to 3.1 days. WiseTech adds that China’s Golden Week holiday disrupts production and cargo flows, so an easing in demand may not quickly improve booking availability or schedule reliability.
What 6.9 days does to a buffer
Average delay on Far East to North America rose 0.8 days to 6.9 days in Xeneta’s data. Xeneta places the risk in how late the late arrivals run, and says buffer days in contracts and inventory plans are being consumed fast. Every carrier posted its highest average delay of the past 12 months in September. Across all trades the carrier range runs from Maersk at 47% on time (down from 51%) to Yang Ming at 4%, which Xeneta puts at a 43-point spread.
A WiseTech executive told FreightWaves that on some lanes being late is now the most likely case, and that carrier selection should be treated as a reliability decision more than a rate decision.
Ocean schedules on the lane you book are worth checking by service, vessel by vessel, before the delay buffer is set. A tender clause that says only “on time” leaves two blanks: the reference schedule, original or revised ETA, and the tolerance, which Xeneta sets at 24 hours either side. Xeneta advises asking carriers which services will be protected from capacity cuts and putting reliability, port rotations and unscheduled calls into accountability talks before 2027 contracts. WiseTech advises forwarders and cargo owners to book early against contracted allocations and to add time to delivery commitments for each carrier’s reliability.